Yemen_Houthis_vs_SA.mp4
[Hide] (27.9MB, 1280x720, 10:20) So, Trump is absolutely losing the war and out of options. Let's have a recap of recent events:
>Trump fled Middle East while abandoning Air Force 1, hiding in catering truck to secretly board another plane and letting everyone else serve as decoy as he feared Iran would shoot down his plane
>Trump flailing for control, claims US controls Strait of Hormuz, which no one believes
>US still not doing shit militarily because not enough munitions or military support for doomed US venture
>Iran considering attacking bases in Europe if fighting continues, including bases in Bulgaria, Cyprus, Romania and Germany
>Iran and Oman reached a new agreement for Strait of Hormuz
>Trump tried to claim responsibility, but Iran denied this and delayed implementation of agreement just to make a point
>Iran says even with agreement, ending the strait's closure is contingent on the US actually implementing MoU terms
>Trump offered to lift Iran sanctions and end the blockade if Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz, doesn't charge fees, and ends the activities of its proxies and Iran unsurprisingly isn't taking the deal
>Iran also released a list of vessels noncompliant with Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, stating that they will be open to bans, fines, or seizure in the Strait of Hormuz in the future and states that vessels engaging with them in Ship-to-Ship transfers will also be included in the list (this is like secondary sanctions but for ships). Interestingly, most ships are either UAE or Qatari.
>USS Lincoln in dire state. Carrier has been there too long and cannot get adequate resupply because Iran blew up its logistics.
>USS Lincoln now to be replaced by another aircraft carrier after issues with USS Lincoln went publicly viral.
>MSNBC claims Hegseth hid from Trump that key US logistics base had been blown up from Iran. Hegseth calls it a lie, and also claims USS Lincoln doesn't have logistics problems.
>Word has it other US ships in the area, including the other carrier USS George H W Bush, are just as badly off, if not worse
>Troop discontent with war is high
>New Operation Economic Fury promises most severe sanctions for greater damage, but unlikely to achieve gains because Iran was already under harsh sanctions and has spent the past 40 years hardening its economy to not be trade-reliant precisely as insurance against this sort of thing. Also Russia and China will obviously not play ball on these sanctions and Iran's government is fully capable of neglecting the suffering of its people.
>New sanctions include blocking academic exchanges (which tbh usually resulted in educated Iranians leaving Iran) and sport competitions (reminiscent of FIFA bullshit), so basically useless pettiness
>UAE pissed over previous attacks, declares active trade embargo vs Iran. UAE has generally circumvented trade embargoes for Iran as a valuable trade corridor before, buying embargoed western goods that were otherwise difficult to obtain and selling them to Iran, so this is close to a declaration of war against Iran.
>Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces declare dissolution, merge into official Syrian army while Syria promises to respect Kurdish human rights and heritage. The SDF used to be backed by the USA, but the USA began backing the new Syrian government instead. Once again, the USA used the Kurds and then fucked them over.
>New Syrian government is probably a bit stronger for this. Remains to be seen what Iran will do about Syria, but Syrian foreign minister Asaad Al-Shaibani rejected Pakistani offer to mediate with Iran, leaving the door open for future arrangements if the "necessary conditions" are there
>Yemeni Houthis at active war with Saudi Arabia, which is fighting back with assistance from Turkey and Pakistan as part of their new accords
>Houthis hit SA's Jazan Oil Refinery and hit SA hard in general. SA fraying from attacks.
>Houthis vs SA is basically a test of the new Mecca accords that SA has negotiated. If SA fails, then the regional security architecture must negotiate with and include Iran.
>Syria is openly contemplating joining this Mecca accords regional framework too.
>Syria still attacked by Israel in attack Iran strongly condemns
>Meanwhile, Hezbollah obviously not disarming as the official Lebanese government and Israeli state have agreed upon
>Israel still performing attacks in Lebanon, to no one's surprise, though not at the same intensity as before
>Prime minister of Iraqi Kurdistan's office was targeted by what appeared to be 2 Iranian Hadid-110 fast stealth drones, but Iran's foreign minister Araghchi called it a false flag attack and said Iran happy protect Iraqi Kurdistan and appreciates their contributions to border security
>Trump halted joint exercise with South Korea because of very good talks with North Korea (which North Korea denies having) and because Trump is mad SK wouldn't back him in Iran war, further deteriorating US's standing in SEA.
>USA puts out up to $10 million bounties for information on IRGC officials, showing total lack of coordination because Majid Khademi was already killed in a US-Israeli strike on April 6th
>Israel transitions control of west bank from military to civil police in attempt to further its attempted annexation of the west bank
>Israel fighting EU bans on Israeli settler goods and attempted EU-wide sanctions against said goods
>Iran said to have done billions of USD in damage to US intelligence sites in the middle east
>Iran declares all damaged weapon systems and military production to have been rebuilt
>Iran, already a BRICS member, eyeing joining the BRICS New Development Bank
>Iran also stated it discovered an additional 200 billion cubic metres of natural gas in the Fars province
>There are now rumors from Iran that nuclear weapons development are now actively being developed
So, lots of shit is happening around the middle east, but mostly Trump trying even harder sanctions to strangle Iran economically in a game of chicken where Iran's government won't yield because it's still an existential war for them and he still lacks good military options. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and others are playing a game to strengthen themselves and sideline Iran from the region's new security architecture while Iran is in a proxy war against Saudi Arabia.
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